Pacific Decadel Oscillation Projection

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

To understand global climate, one needs to understand how PDO, El Nino and La Nina and Milankovitch Cycles work in conjunction with Sun Temperature trends and Greenhouse Gases (GH) and Albedo and also Tectonic Volcanism cycles and trends. If you can figure this all out you go to the head of my class and I will give you an A .

Of these variables influencing climate, we humans can alter GH gases and albedo and to a limited extent, plate tectonics. We can do this by altering the size and functionality of carbon sinks and its sequestering as a ratio of carbon outputs. We can also do this by altering methane, ozone and acid emissions and particulates. By removing the alpine glaciers and shrinking the polar ice caps, we also affect variability mediation, albedo and post glacial rebound and its impact on tectonics. We can poison organisms that act as sinks for methane and carbon or we can feed them with nitrates and phosphates or limiting micronutrients.

We might also be able to alter the sun cycles by firing rockets into the sun that pollute the sun and affect its temperature cycles. We have fired some into it already and have no idea of how the sun will react or how this will affect earthly climate. Why not fire some more and see if we can put it out by accident or more likely, make it explode. For the longest time, we assumed wrongly that we had no effect on earth's climate. Acid emissions will alter the melting point of ice and the amount will affect the rate of melting and the quality of ice and we put a huge amount of acid into the environment by pulp mills and coal power plants. 

PDO is going into a cold cycle and it may last 20 about years. El Nino' will work with it to make it colder. La Nina will work to ameliorate the PDO. I haven't assessed where Milankovitch is sitting or heading but the sun is in a hot cycle. Greenhouse gases, anthropogenic particulates, and sulfur acids are in an increasing phase and the sink is not coping. Albedo has been reduced by loss of sea ice and alpine glaciers have almost vanished in many parts of the world along with their summer temperature amelioration effects.

Climatology is the art of simulation of all these variables into a model and predicting where it will go. The models used in simulation are only as good as the parameters that are used in the inputs and as good as the relationships are true between the mathematical algorithms employed and the accuracy or ground truth of the equations and I must add that if a lot of it is speculated, not conclusively ground truthed, then the reliability is questionable.  I did some simcon systems analysis in zoo when at university and know how hard this stuff is and how incredibly altered the results can be with just small changes in input coefficients and parameters or functional relationships. They represent the best that we can predict at this time subject to new information and greater ground truthing. 

Very very long term natural past trends say that we are headed for a hot time which will last many millions of years. A shorter look says that we may have another ice age. A still shorter look says that we are going to heat up. A still shorter look, 35 years, says that we are going to cool down. A hundred year model by Canadian climatologist says that we are headed up. What time frame are you interested in? Take your pick. Jormawankenobe. Copyright 2008 J. Jyrkkanen

Typical wintertime Sea Surface Temperature (colors), 
 Sea Level Pressure (contours) and surface windstress (arrows) anomaly patterns during warm and cool phases of PDO 
 

warm phase                                            cool phase